Are humanoid robots just around the corner or still mostly science fiction? Heres my take on when youll finally get your robot servant.
Since the World Robot Conference in Beijing (August 21-25), videos of robots mimicking human expressions, alongside prototypes with astonishingly agile movements, have grabbed a lot of attention. In the western hemisphere, big names like Tesla and Boston Dynamics are pushing the boundaries of robotics, and Unitree recently announced the G1 modela robot that walk, jump, climb stairs, and manipulate tools priced at $16,000. Some industry experts predict that humanoid robots could enter households in 5-10 years.
But the real question is: when will you get your robot?
This article probes the current state of robotics and offers an estimate on when you should start saving up for your personal, chore-doing robot servant.
First, we need to clarify what we mean by "humanoid robot." Broadly speaking, a humanoid robot is simply a machine shaped like a person. By that definition, the first one was built in 1810 by a German named Friedrich Kaufmann. But his 'Trumpet Player Automaton' hardly is what we imagine when we think about robots today. A more demanding definition requires humanoid robots to be virtually indistinguishable from humans. They would look, move, speak, and display emotions like humansyou might pass them on the street and not even realize it (think Blade Runner).
It will likely take a very long timewell beyond our lifetimesbefore robots become 100% human-like. So, for the purpose of this article, lets narrow the focus. Heres the kind of humanoid robot Id like to see:
A robot with the physical dexterity and intelligence to handle simple, everyday tasks, like hanging up laundry or washing dishes.
I dont need a machine that can perfectly replicate human expressions or emotionsI just want it to clean the bathroom and scoop the litter box. Of course, a household robot like that would require high spatial awareness and excellent motor skills, allowing it to safely navigate through different homes and adapt to changing environments. That reality may be closer than we think.
To estimate how long it will take before you can get a functional robot servant, lets examine the key challenges robotics currently faces:
- AI isnt there yet: Despite the advancements in robotics hardware you may have seen on YouTube, software constraints still prevent robots from operating autonomously in unstructured environments where new obstacles constantly arise. While LLMs are quite good at making casual conversation, they still have short context windows and lack reliable long-term memory, both of which are crucial for real-time decision-making and multi-step problem-solving.
- Battery technology isnt there yet: Todays batteries fail to provide the necessary power density for the prolonged operation of a high-performance robot. Yes, state-of-the-art batteries can power a car for hundreds of miles, but theyre too bulky, and designed for steady power output. A litterbox-cleaning robot, for instance, requires a compact, lightweight battery capable of delivering variable bursts of energy for agile movements.
- Artificial muscle fiber isnt there yet: Current actuatorssuch as electric motors and hydraulicslack the flexibility needed for lifelike motion, making them far less efficient than biological muscles. This limits robots' ability to perform precise, fluid movements. While artificial muscle fibers promise more natural motion, the technology is still in its infancy. The robots well see in our lifetime will most likely rely on traditional mechanics, which impose some restrictions on fine motor skills.
- Hardware is expensive and lacks standartization: Robotic components are costly, partly because there are no universal standards. Unlike other industries, many parts used in robots cannot simply be ordered in bulk, they must be individually designed for each manufacturer. This reliance on custom parts drives up costs and makes mass production difficult at this stage.
- A robot could kill you: If a high-dexterity robot went rogue, it could potentially cause significant harm to humans. Rigorous safety mechanisms must be developed to prevent such scenarios. Beyond preventing a "machine uprising," many other ethical concerns arisejust think of the moral dilemmas involved in programming self-driving cars. It is certain that robotics will need to overcome significant ethical hurdles, along with restrictions and regulations, before mass production becomes a reality.
Practically speaking, security concerns and legal restrictions are perhaps the biggest potential barrier to robot servants. However, none of the technical challenges seem insurmountable, and it seems that theres no hard theoretical or practical limit that would prevent further development. (Note: Im not an engineer or robotics expert. If Ive missed anything, please let me know in the comments!)
Beyond the challenges holding robotics back, theres also a factor that could speed things up considerably: self-replicating robots.
If just one major developer reaches the point where an entire factory is staffed and operated by robots that can build more of themselves, production costs could plummet. These robot-run factories could operate 24/7, expanding their "staff" as needed to meet rising demand without the limitations of human labor. Such a breakthrough could drastically reduce the cost of robots and accelerate advancements faster than expected.
Another reason that could speed up the development of humanoid robots is their potential value to a certain industry known for pioneering new technologies. The models theyre working on likely wont be designed for litterbox-cleaning, but their contributions to R&D could push the entire field forward in unexpected ways, ultimately getting us closer to household robot servants. Investors from other industries are also highly incentivized to pursue roboticsthe global market is expected to grow from $39 billion in 2023 to over $134 billion by 2031.
At the start of this article, I promised you an estimate for when well finally be able to outsource our most annoying chores to a robot. As weve seen, several factors may hinder development and mass production, ranging from software capability, hardware availability and the lack of industry standards, to serious ethical questions. On the flip side, the potential of self-replicating robots and the massive growth prospects of the robotics market could stimulate advancements.
So, without further ado, heres my estimate: It will take 10 to 15 years for versatile household robots to become affordable and reliable enough for mass production, and an additional 5 to 10 years to reach a market penetration similar to that of vacuum cleaners today (75-89% of households in the U.S. and Western countries, according to a survey).
That doesnt mean we wont see advanced models soon. I expect a prototype with the intelligence and physical dexterity to perform various household tasks to emerge within a year or twothough it will likely have cost millions, if not billions, to develop. It will take years for these prototypes to enter production, with the first publicly available models likely priced around the cost of an expensive new car ($200,000+), making them unaffordable for most people. But prices could drop quickly as production scales up. Remember, adjusted for inflation, a simple calculator once cost $9,700 back in 1966. Thats why I estimate at least 10 years will be needed to move from proof-of-concept to widespread adaptation. This assumes, of course, that critical resourceslike rare earth elements, which are becoming harder to obtain amid the electric mobility boomremain available and affordable.
Of course, this is just my guess. How long do you think it will take before a robot cleans your home? Let me know in the comments!